Relegation watch: SAFC, NUFC and Watford? Bournemouth, Norwich and Villa? And are Leicester safe?

John McCormick:
John McCormick: There are lies, damned lies, statistics and dodgy numbers

At the start of the season some 7,696 votes had been cast in our relegation poll. As you can see below, the clear favourites to go down were AFC Bournemouth, Watford and Sunderland, with Norwich then Leicester following behind. Aston Villa and NUFC were also given as possibilities; Villa weren’t far behind Leicester but fewer people went for NUFC and even fewer opted for a club outside the chosen seven.

Relegation poll results as the season kicked off
Who’s going down? Relegation poll results as the season kicked off

In July I told readers I’d track these clubs by means of win/loss ratios, expressed as a decimal number, with a prediction that a win/loss ratio of 0.48 would be the safe limit and any team doing worse than 0.45 would definitely be going down. You can see my reasoning in one of the original articles in the series by following this link.

It’s early to begin reviewing clubs because it will take some time for ratios to get going with any consistency but the international break gives me a chance to show you my method and it also gives you a chance to revisit your relegation choices now the transfer window has closed.

Here’s what I’ve come up with:

Win /loss ratios after 4 games
Win /loss ratios after 4 games

At the moment key borderlines are brown and blue. I decided against red and green, the traditional colours representing safety and danger, as we may have readers with red-green colour blindness, and I opted for the colours used in electrical wiring (dropping yellow as it provides a very poor contrast on the screen). However, I believe some of the hues and tones generated by computers and LED/LCD screens can contain red and green elements. Furthermore, brown colours include some element of red. What this means is that although the blue and brown colours I’m using work fine for me I don’t know if they will improve things for anyone else. Feel free let me know how they are for you, feedback’s always helpful.

Clubs above the blue line are living in, or at least heading into, safety. Leicester don’t fit on the chart, by the way, because they haven’t lost and therefore their win-loss ratio is infinity. I can’t graph that – you’ll have to imagine them hovering some way above the blue arrow. Clubs below the brown line are doomed if they stay there. Hopefully, I’ll be able to indicate up or down trajectories as the season progresses (and hopefully Sunderland’s trajectory  will be upwards).

Back to the poll

The first four games took place during the transfer period and we haven’t seen any play since it closed. Will deals done in the window make a difference when the season resumes? For my part, I’m of the opinion we’ve strengthened our midfield and attack and  that our defence – recently prone to lapses – will come good. I’m not the only one, I think. Pete Sixsmith appears to be so fond of Borini that he’d let him move in next door M. Salut’s (on the right) poll is much more positive than negative, and Jake’s take on some of our arrivals shows what he thinks:

'one obvious success story so far'
‘one obvious success story so far’

'starting to show his class.'
‘starting to show his class.’

 a happy day recalled
‘a happy day recalled’

How was your club doing before the window closed, how did you feel then, how do you feel now? Your comments are always welcome and as the poll is starting anew you have a chance to change your mind; here it is again, now reset to zero and with the clubs in the order in which voters favoured them for relegation:

[polldaddy poll=9052937]

If you want to keep up with your club’s progress (or the lack of it) point your RSS feed at this site, bookmark the page, or visit regularly. You’ll be welcome.

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4 thoughts on “Relegation watch: SAFC, NUFC and Watford? Bournemouth, Norwich and Villa? And are Leicester safe?”

  1. Biggest surprise so far is that Man City aside the poor or indifferent performance of the top eight sides. Hence my comment about Spurs. Intelligent investment and squad building by the rest could mean things are much closer this season. As Chelsea, Man Utd and Liverpool have already found out the other 12 teams are not just going to rollover. This gives everyone a chance – don’t want to go the same way as Scottish league!

    • And La Liga, but we’re very nearly there.
      FFP is doing nothing to help, maybe the obscene
      TV money will, as per WBA.

  2. SAFC – Your defence is a big concern putting you firmly in the danger. I would also be worried about your manager’s commitment to the cause.
    Nufc – Definitely not convinced by McClaren and Ashley is unwilling to invest. fans of these proud NE clubs deserve better! Turbulent times ahead?
    Norwich – Have impressive manager but have not strengthened enough in key positions. Likely to struggle.
    Bournemouth – Honeymoon period could be over due to glut of nasty injuries to Gradel and Mings . Suspect defence but will go down fighting.
    Watford – as a fan I’m biased but we now have a competitive squad. Will take time to gel but already we are resilient and Flores appears to be a wily operator.
    Aston Villa, WBA and others could easily be drawn into a survival battle. Expect surprise teams like Spurs to be down at the foot of table.

    • It will be a dog fight as usual for us Ray ,though I am pleased with our transfer business ,its not enough . We need cover at left back while Jonny Evans at CB would be just what the doctor ordered . As for Advocaats commitment I understand where your coming from although I don’t blame him . Apparantly Short and Congerton wouldn’t take no for an answer and hounded the man untill he said yes , he is a good manager though with it seems an eye for a player . As for the rest of the teams , I’m pleased to see that you don’t believe the hype coming out of the Wonga bunker though if I can correct you on one thing , they’ve spent a fortune . To early to pick a bottom three at the minute but the above teams could well be involved with one or two surprises !

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