Relegation watch: SAFC, NUFC and Watford? Bournemouth, Norwich and Villa? And are Leicester safe?

At the start of the season some 7,696 votes had been cast in our relegation poll. As you can see below, the clear favourites to go down were AFC Bournemouth, Watford and Sunderland, with Norwich then Leicester following behind. Aston Villa and NUFC were also given as possibilities; Villa weren’t far behind Leicester but fewer people went for NUFC and even fewer opted for a club outside the chosen seven.

In July I told readers I’d track these clubs by means of win/loss ratios, expressed as a decimal number, with a prediction that a win/loss ratio of 0.48 would be the safe limit and any team doing worse than 0.45 would definitely be going down. You can see my reasoning in one of the original articles in the series by following this link.

It’s early to begin reviewing clubs because it will take some time for ratios to get going with any consistency but the international break gives me a chance to show you my method and it also gives you a chance to revisit your relegation choices now the transfer window has closed.

Here’s what I’ve come up with:

At the moment key borderlines are brown and blue. I decided against red and green, the traditional colours representing safety and danger, as we may have readers with red-green colour blindness, and I opted for the colours used in electrical wiring (dropping yellow as it provides a very poor contrast on the screen). However, I believe some of the hues and tones generated by computers and LED/LCD screens can contain red and green elements. Furthermore, brown colours include some element of red. What this means is that although the blue and brown colours I’m using work fine for me I don’t know if they will improve things for anyone else. Feel free let me know how they are for you, feedback’s always helpful.

Clubs above the blue line are living in, or at least heading into, safety. Leicester don’t fit on the chart, by the way, because they haven’t lost and therefore their win-loss ratio is infinity. I can’t graph that – you’ll have to imagine them hovering some way above the blue arrow. Clubs below the brown line are doomed if they stay there. Hopefully, I’ll be able to indicate up or down trajectories as the season progresses (and hopefully Sunderland’s trajectory  will be upwards).

Back to the poll

The first four games took place during the transfer period and we haven’t seen any play since it closed. Will deals done in the window make a difference when the season resumes? For my part, I’m of the opinion we’ve strengthened our midfield and attack and  that our defence – recently prone to lapses – will come good. I’m not the only one, I think. Pete Sixsmith appears to be so fond of Borini that he’d let him move in next door,  M. Salut’s (on the right) poll is much more positive than negative, and Jake’s take on some of our arrivals shows what he thinks:

How was your club doing before the window closed, how did you feel then, how do you feel now? Your comments are always welcome and as the poll is starting anew you have a chance to change your mind; here it is again, now reset to zero and with the clubs in the order in which voters favoured them for relegation:

[polldaddy poll=9052937]

If you want to keep up with your club’s progress (or the lack of it) point your RSS feed at this site, bookmark the page, or visit regularly. You’ll be welcome.