Aston Villa, SAFC and Bournemouth bottom, Norwich and Newcastle nearby, Watford wobbling, Leicester laughing

John McCormick:
John McCormick: drowning his sorrows

John McCormick writes: It’s another international break, so another chance to take stock and update my “relegation watch” series. For some of the clubs at or near the bottom, it’s getting scary.

(If you’re new to the series and want to see how it began, or if you want to refresh your memory , you can try this link)

By now regular readers should be familiar with the first graph. It dates from the close of the transfer window and shows our readers’ choices for the relegation spots.  I’m putting it in (again) so you can see how closely it resembles reality or, alternatively, so you can work out just what the clubs have to do to prove our readers right by the end of the season.

 

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Sunderland, Bournemouth, Watford to drop? Norwich hanging on? Villa and Newcastle safe? – And Leicester out of sight? Ask the fans!

John McCormick:
John McCormick: there are lies, damned lies, statistics and dodgy numbers

Monsieur Salut writes: John McCormick, our wizard with the stats, wrote this update to his series on the developing relegation scrap before Dick Advocaat left. His gut feelings may therefore change according to who is appointed, but I suspect his calculations will not, or at least not yet .. now over to John …

It’s still early days and small numbers of both wins and losses will continue to produce swings in win-loss ratios for some time, but with no game reports to post because of the international break it’s as good a time as any to make another visit to the bottom end of the table.
Those of you who’ve visited this series previously might remember that my last review took place just as the transfer window had closed and, with that, I gave you the opportunity to have another vote in the relegation poll that I’d opened in the close season.

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Diving for glory. Is blaming foreigners jingoistic piffle, or sadly spot-on?

Tom Webb
Tom Webb

Salut! Sunderland has been banging on for years about diving, the feigning of injury, unprofessional attempts by players to get opponents booked or sent off and other forms of cheating. The issue is raised with every “Who are You?” interviewee and I can think of only one or two who said too much fuss was made of it.

But should we really accept that British players are largely blameless, or that they were until they caught the nasty habits of Johnny Foreigner?

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Relegation watch: SAFC, NUFC and Watford? Bournemouth, Norwich and Villa? And are Leicester safe?

John McCormick:
John McCormick: There are lies, damned lies, statistics and dodgy numbers

At the start of the season some 7,696 votes had been cast in our relegation poll. As you can see below, the clear favourites to go down were AFC Bournemouth, Watford and Sunderland, with Norwich then Leicester following behind. Aston Villa and NUFC were also given as possibilities; Villa weren’t far behind Leicester but fewer people went for NUFC and even fewer opted for a club outside the chosen seven.

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SAFC v Norwich City ‘Who are You?’: a Canary sent from Coventry

Jake: check out the Who are You? series at
Jake: check out the Who are You? series at https://safc.blog/category/who-are-you-2015-2016/

This has happened before, but only once I think. Paddy Davitt* sees Norwich City week in, week out. He feels the emotion when they win, was thrilled by the Wembley playoff win and ‘cares a great deal about Norwich’s fortunes’. But he is not a fan. Paddy is the chief Norwich City writer for the Archant media group that includes the Eastern Daily Press. But he supports that infamous bête noire for Sunderland supporters, Coventry City. I think we had a WBA ‘Who are You? interviewee who was in a similar position (reporting on Albion, not being a supporter), though he didn’t declare his true allegiance. See what Paddy made of our questions (posed before we knew of his footballing preference) ahead of a match he predicts the Canaries will win, leaving us pointless and – he believes – doomed along with Watford and Bournemouth …

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Taylor Made: a BBC football version of This is Your Life

Bill Taylor gets lost in stats
Bill Taylor gets lost in stats

Bill Taylor came across a nifty new BBC tool allowing fans of all Premier League teams to calculate their clubs’ performance during their lifetimes. Fellow Sunderland supporters – and others – are invited to have a go and report back any interesting findings …

There’s no evidence to support this, but George Santayana, the Spanish/American writer and philosopher, COULD have been at Wembley in 1937 to see Sunderland clobber Preston North End 3-1 in the FA Cup. Santayana was certainly in Europe at the time.

And the saying he’s most famous for could well be applied to the Black Cats and their long-suffering fans: “Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.”

For those of us who have trouble remembering what happened last week, let alone a few decades ago, the BBC’s football website has unveiled a magical new tool to jog our memories.

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Relegation watch: still looking at Watford, Bournemouth and Norwich, with Leicester hanging on

John McCormick:
John McCormick: getting ready, only a month to go

What a website! On 15th June, in response to my “who went down, who’s going down?”  Dave left a comment which included:

“… I think Pearson will, at some point, have a big row with a player or a fan, and the team’s spirit that kept them up will dissipate…”

Two weeks later Leicester City’s website contained the following:

“…it has become clear to the Club that fundamental differences in perspective exist between us. Regrettably, the Club believes that the working relationship between Nigel and the Board is no longer viable…”

The effect on team spirit remains to be seen but as I said at the start, what a website!

A week ago I left you with a poll whose results were suggesting the targets of my dodgy numbers “relegation watch” would be the three promoted clubs and Leicester. Since then another couple of thousand votes have been cast but they didn’t make much difference, despite the turmoil  at the Kingpower . Here are last Friday’s and this Friday’s results:

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Relegation: it’s still Bournemouth and Watford. Can Leicester and Norwich relax?

John McCormick:
John McCormick: I’m biased. Are you?

Strange, isn’t it? I spend Monday evening idly browsing the MLS (aka Major League Soccer) website trying to work out how it (the league, not the website) operates and then along comes David Millward with a piece about a football convention in the USA. I wonder if the fans he mixed with can get their heads around relegation and promotion better than I can handle the subtleties of the MLS.

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