|Relegation poll results after the close of the summer transfer window||
By now you must be getting bored with the graph above on the left, especially as it has been less than a month, and only three games, since it was last posted up.
But with a break in our first team fixtures I’m taking the opportunity to do a quick update on how different clubs have done since then, and as we appear to be attracting new readers it’s appropriate to put in a reminder of how things began, not to mention links to previous posts.
My original premise was that a certain win-loss ratio (0.48) would guarantee safety and that any club consistently below 0.45 would go down. In between the ratios is the zone of uncertainty, a clarty place that is best avoided.
When I last looked, in January, Leicester had fulfilled their early promise (keep going, please), Watford were well out of danger, Swansea and Bournemouth didn’t look in too much discomfort and Norwich were hovering close to the 0.48 line. Only three clubs were below 0.45. Newcastle and Sunderland were just under the line and Aston Villa were some way below it.
How have things changed? Here’s how these clubs have performed since the last FA Cup break:
You have to remember I’m only considering wins and losses, draws are of no consequence to the ratio or its key figures, although Swansea do appear to be crawling to safety one point at a time. Sunderland and Watford have had the best of it, with Norwich doing worse than anyone else and Bournemouth, NUFC, and Villa managing one win and two losses each.
|You can see the effect on win-loss ratios on the right:
As you’ll see below, my maths says Watford can’t go down, whatever happens between now and May.
Bournemouth and Swansea remain well inside the safety zone at 0.58 and 0.54 respectively but fans will still be holding their breath.
Norwich’s run of losses led to a plodge in the uncertainty zone, then they found themselves sucked down as losses continued. They now have the same win-loss ratio (0.43) as Newcastle, who are on a slide themselves. Neither team has any breathing space.
Sunderland have narrowed the gap. Their ratio was 0.33, it’s now 0.4.
Aston Villa remain adrift. Their most recent win – their third so far – gave them a temporary lift but they seem destined to finish the season lagging well behind everyone else.
I can leave Watford and focus on the other clubs. Looking at changes in win loss ratios since game 6 you can see Villa’s recent rise hasn’t been enough to save them and that everyone else is performing erratically:
The best I can say from this is that we appear to be on an upward trend and the other clubs are moving downwards as much as anything. This begs the question, will our paths cross and stay crossed by the end of the season. It’s not too long before that day of judgment, games are running out.
I’ve used my dodgy maths to calculate how many of the remaining games each club needs to win or lose to guarantee safety or relegation. I’ve included Watford to show how safe they are – they need to win 0.3 of a game for absolute safety, and they need to lose 14 of their remaining 12 games in order to ensure relegation – and allow their fans a gloat. It’s not so straightforward for the others:
|games left||wins to guarantee safety||losses to guarantee relegation|