Relegation watch revisited (2): It was the draws wot done it

John McCormick:
John McCormick
number crunching

The season before last we won only 7 games and we stayed up. We even finished above Aston Villa, who won 10, as well as QPR and Hull City, whose 8 wins each could not stave off relegation. The other relegated team, Burnley, had 7 wins, the same as us.

The difference between us and Burnley was that we achieved 17 draws, and lost only (only??) 14 games. They could manage only 12 draws, and their five fewer points meant they finished second bottom, three places below us.

And thinking about that got me started on the notion of win-loss ratios, which became the tool I used to track clubs in last season’s relegation watch.

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Relegation watch revisted (1): admit it, we fans know nowt about football*

John McCormick:
John McCormick
having a rest between graphs

Regular visitors will know I’ve been in the habit of looking at the relegation spots for the last couple of years. I haven’t wanted to, it’s just that I’m not sure where the top half of the table is.

So, about a year ago, instead of making my own predictions, I asked readers which clubs were going down, with the aim of tracking these clubs as the season progressed.

The poll ran from June until the end of the transfer season. Initially it was more or less confined to SAFC fans then others  came on board, and some of them weren’t complimentary about us.

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Sunderland season reviews (1): the rocky road to survival

John McCormick:
John McCormick
looking forward to next season

It’s time again for Salut! Sunderland writers, regular or occasional, to look back on a season that carried the now customary threat of relegation before bursting into life with another of our extraordinary late escapes. The reviews will appear pretty much in the order they are received – feel free to have a go if there’s something pressing on your mind – and end with the thoughts of our indefatigable chronicler Pete Sixsmith. Accordingly, we start with associate editor John McCormick

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SA’s Everton essay: fantastic (with things to sing when you’re winnin’)

Jake's take on Big Sam
Jake’s take on Big Sam

John McCormick writes: Petula’s singing quietly in the background as I finish my beer. I’ll shortly be going to bed, where I’ll hum “I believe” until, at midnight, Radio 4 lets the sound of Big Ben ring out with: Jer-main-De-foe, Jou-nas-Ka-boul; Kha-zri-Ko-ne, Ca-at-er-mole.

Tomorrow, I’ll wake up to Oklahoma’s “Oh what a beautiful morning”, which will be followed by Louis Armstrong and “it’s a wonderful world” but, really, I’ll be waiting for Stevie Wonder and “Overjoyed”, which will accompany Pete Sixsmith’s report.

But that’s tomorrow. Before then, after Petula finishes and before Big Ben begins, we have  “The Letter”:

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Villa, Sunderland, Newcastle? Norwich, Swansea or Bournemouth? Not Watford, and ha’way Leicester

John McCormick:
John McCormick: let’s drink to next season

John McCormick writes: there’s no Premier League football this weekend, so it’s another chance to take stock and update my “relegation watch” series. If you’re new to the series and want to see how it began, or if you want to refresh your memory, you can try this link)

By now regulars should be familiar with the first graph. It dates from the close of the summer transfer window and shows our readers’ choices for the relegation spots.  I’m putting it in once more so you can remind yourself how closely it resembles reality or, alternatively, so you can work out just what the clubs have to do to prove our readers right by the end of the season. If that’s too difficult you can jump to the end, where I’ve made it simple for you.

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Aston Villa, SAFC and Bournemouth bottom, Norwich and Newcastle nearby, Watford wobbling, Leicester laughing

John McCormick:
John McCormick: drowning his sorrows

John McCormick writes: It’s another international break, so another chance to take stock and update my “relegation watch” series. For some of the clubs at or near the bottom, it’s getting scary.

(If you’re new to the series and want to see how it began, or if you want to refresh your memory , you can try this link)

By now regular readers should be familiar with the first graph. It dates from the close of the transfer window and shows our readers’ choices for the relegation spots.  I’m putting it in (again) so you can see how closely it resembles reality or, alternatively, so you can work out just what the clubs have to do to prove our readers right by the end of the season.

 

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Six in a row, and I was there

John McCormick:

I had a ticket well in time but had to keep travel arrangements flexible right up to the weekend, which meant the car rather than the train, and a trip on my own on Saturday afternoon. After watching Forest Green see off Margate I headed north, pressing the search button on the radio to pick up sundry football channels as I made my way up the Ms 57, 58 and 6.

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